Congress Immigration Reform 2009

Immigration Reform is at the forefront of all discussion among immigration attorneys. A major point of contention is what exactly will occur when President Barack Obama and his administration push forward on an immigration reform bill. Congress with have to vote for it no matter what!

This said the issue is attempting to predict what Congress will do.

First and foremost, the big-picture should be considered. The real goal for all parties involved is re-election, and new election in 2012. The Democrats want to continue their current run on Capitol Hill and the Republicans want to end that run and start one of their own.

So the underline issue is what will help either party achieve their independent goals? In order for any party to even dream of gaining presidential power both parties are going to have to deal with the powerful Latino voting block. Conventional media outlets simply do not understand the Latino vote. Current polls show that Latinos place immigration reform third on their list of important issues, behind education and health care. However, this is not to say that the Latino voter does not care about immigration reform. Polls show that the Latino voter is heavily concerned about immigration reform because supposedly the Latino voter has family, and friends that are in the United States illegally.

Now, on the surface this may not seem like such a big deal. However, the next presidential election is a little less than three years away, and by then the Latino vote is predicted to increase by a dramatic percentage. During the 2008 Presidential Campaign Obama received 66% of the Latino vote. Analysts predict that if Latino’s are favored, and satisfied by comprehensive immigration reform the Democratic party can garnish up to 75% of the Latino vote. This would mean disaster for the Republican Party.

Now does this mean that Republicans will thus vote against immigration reform to prevent the Democrats from making the Latino voter happy….NOT AT ALL! The reason is that by voting against a comprehensive immigration reform bill, the Republicans would end up upsetting the Latino voter, which will more than likely push even more Latino voters to the Democratic Party. This is a double-edged sword to say the least.

So what does this mean? This means that the odds are that an immigration reform will pass unless the Republican Party wishes to blaze new trials and proceed on a very risky platform.

However, the degree of coverage of this reform is a whole other issue.